College Football Preview: Win Totals

Welcome one and all – casual sports gambler, hardened degenerate, even the bored internet peruser with nothing better to do on a Thursday afternoon than read the musings of a would-be sharp – thank you all for making it even this far into Beat the Juice’s first ever picks post.  The Game of Thrones among you will be familiar with the phrase “Winter Is Coming.” Somewhere around April 1st, I start thinking to myself “Summer is Coming.” And that’s not just because I live in Austin, TX where, on most summer mornings (nevermind the afternoons), you can use your car hood to fry an egg.  And a slab of bacon. And I guess with the right pan, probably just about anything you want to.

Anyway, I don’t start sweating summer during the Final Four just because summer gets hot as Hades in Ausitn.  No, it’s because, with all due respect to the golf and tennis majors and the occasional international soccer tournament that merits my attention, the summer is a sports wasteland.  I starve in the summer. But here we sit, nearing the end of that long, MLB-regular-season-laden gauntlet. And that means one thing – college football is a week away. OK, it means two things – it’s time for college football futures picks.

Let me say from the outset, that most futures bets are terrible value.  The book has much less certainty than in a single game, and they charge you a huge premium for that uncertainty.  Even so, if you look hard, you kind find value on the board. I should also say that if you’ve come here looking for the ramblings of a would-be color commentator on how Clemson’s interior defense is under-rated by the market, and so we you should bet the Over on their win total, you’ve come to the wrong place.  My analysis is not that of a scout or coordinator reviewing game films. My analysis is all based on numbers. And its description would make for very poor reading (and give away my secrets, to boot!). With that out of the way…

Regular Season Win Totals  

I’ll start with my best bets, which I’d recommend as 2 unit bets:

  1. UTEP – Over 3 wins at +120 on 
  2. Kentucky – Under 6.5 wins at +120 at,, and
  3. W. Michigan – Under 7.5 wins at +110 at 5Dimes.u or
  4. SMU – Under 6 wins at +115 on

Other bets deserving of 1 unit:

  1. Auburn – Under 7.5 wins at +115 on and
  2. Georgia – Under 10.5 wins at -145 on
  3. Texas – Over 9.5 Wins at +180 on
  4. Boston College – Over 6 wins at +110 on
  5. MTSU – Over 5.5 wins at +130 on
  6. Charlotte – Over 4.5 wins at +110 on
  7. La. Tech – Under 7.5 wins at +110 on

That’s it for Regular Season wins bets.  I’ll have a second CFB kickoff post that tackles national championship odds best bets.  And then we’ll get into Week 1.

Throughout the season, you can follow my results in this Google Sheet.

Until then, stay sharp.

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