After losing the blood sport that was the Sept 7th/8th weekend, Bucky and I returned to the drawing board with renewed focus. Last weekend was to be the turning point in our betting season – the slate of games when the statistics (ever on our side) caught up with the book’s luck and showed the sharps for who they were. Well, let’s hope it didn’t do quite that.
My Saturday got started with my Indiana moneyline hanging tight down 7-3 to the Buckeyes through the first quarter, and then going into the half down 30-10. I gave up hope early in the second quarter when Indiana had a punt blocked for a safety to go down 13. Oh, who am I kidding? I gave up hope when I realized this was a football game. But never fear, because I had Miami (OH)’s moneyline at +675 vs Cincy. That is six hundred and seventy five dollars to every hundred bucks, for the mathematically challenged. It would be a really nice hit, and the RedHawks (not a typo; they capitalize the “H” but insist it is one word…) looked primed to do it, leading Cincy 17-6 in the 4th. And then the Bearcats scored two TDs in the final three minutes, the last of which was a pick 6.
“Now, it was right about that time, ole’ Tanner walloped the coffee table something fierce and wandered off yonder to the kitchen to concoct up his first margarita of the day. If I were a bettin’ man, I’d’ve wagered a chicken dinner it wuzn’t gonna be his last.”
Luckily for me, I make really good margs. Also, luckily for me, I had the Temple moneyline at a solid +220. And luckiest of all, Temple’s defense doesn’t give two damns about how many times they have to start first and 10 inside their own 20. On back to back 4th quarter possessions nursing a five point lead, they gave up a 55 yard punt return to their own 4 and punted the ball all of seven yards to their own 10. They didn’t give up a point off of either possession; ironically enough, their offense gave up 2 on the last play of the game taking a safety to run out the clock and ensure a much-needed W for yours truly. And I’ll cut to the chase for the rest of my Saturday slate: South Alabama vs Memphis, Texas State vs SMU, Hawaii vs Washington, and UCLA vs Oklahoma were all longer shot dog moneylines and all got destroyed. MTSU was a much shorter dog, but got trounced just as badly.
Bucky got to work early on his college slate, picking two games on Friday night Wake -3 vs North Carolina and Boston College laying 20.5 against the Mad Hatters. Wake was up first and built Bucky a 21-3 lead early in the 4th quarter before Carolina stormed back to 21-18. They got the ball back with a little over a minute left, down 24-18 and had a 13 yard run go out of bounds at the Wake 42 with :01 on the cock, setting up a dramatic Hail Mary to give them the win and Bucky the L. Except the refs ignored the second and called the game. It was bizarre. Or maybe easily explained by the ref being on the same side of the action as Bucky. I guess we’ll never know.
Then Kansas just beat the dog shit out of Boston College. There’s not much more to say about the actual game, so I’ll focus on the sheer rarity of it in a gambling context. I’ve been paying attention to this stuff for about a decade, and I can’t remember a 20 point dog wining by 20 points; it’s highly unusual. But to have picked a 20 point fave and lose the bet by 40? I asked Bucky if he’s ever had that happen before in his 142 years of handicapping. He’s still thinking on it, but has gotten through the 80’s and is making surprising headway with the 70’s given his general state of mind throughout the decade. I’ll be sure to update you guys when he gives me confirmation that this is a once in a trillion year occurrence.
Minnesota just couldn’t get the separation Bucky needed to cover 16.5 against Georgia Southern. But he was saved by the 1.5 points he was getting on Iowa State to cover vs Iowa as the Hawkeyes took home the Federal Corn Subsidy trophy 18-17. Moving on to Sunday…Bucky and I went head to head on the Cowboys vs Native Americans and, well, it didn’t turn out well for me. The Cowboys may actually be good this year. Not like “We’re going to go 9-7 so Jerry Jones maintains hope that the nucleus has Super Bowl potential and just pays everyone more money” good, but like NFC Championship-bound good (I’m not ready to put anyone in the Super Bowl over the Rams right now).
Bucky also had Houston laying 8.5 against Jacksonville, which despite Houston’s dumpster fire of an O line, looked pretty decent considering that Jacksonville had lost Pro Bowl QB Nick Foles to injury in week 1 and would be starting 6th round draft pick Gardner Minshew. And then this happened.
You want to guess whether Bucky covered?
He lost on Tennessee laying 3 to Indy, which was deserved. Is there a more boring ass game you could imagine in the NFL right now than that matchup? I guess Miami vs the Jets, which we’ll see twice this year, but, at least those squads are so bad it’s kinda entertaining. And to round out his week 3 units in the positive (he bet 5 on Dallas!!), Bucky picked up a W in the late game when Matty Ice decided to show up in prime time and not only cover but win.
I dropped two more NFL dog moneyline (Oakland and Arizona), to bring me to a nearly 6 unit loss on the week. Now, you might ask yourself, “Surely, three weeks into this strategy of betting moneyline dogs, and being down a whopping 30% of his wagers, Tanner will pivot to a different strategy.” To which, I can only reply “The math will set me free.” Or “I don’t rebuild, I just reload.” Or a lot of other things. I could actually say a lot of things, I guess. But I’ll go with “The math will set me free” because it sounds smarter and more aloof, like I know something you guys don’t.
Uncle Bucky’s NCAAF Picks (1 unit unless otherwise noted):
Kentucky +6 vs Miss State at -108 on BetOnline.ag
Oregon -10.5 vs Stanford at -108 on BetOnline.ag (2 units)
TCU -9.5 vs SMU at -109 on GTBets.eu
Texas -5 vs Oklahoma State at -110 on BetOnline.ag (2 units)
UNC -3 vs App. State at +105 on BetOnline.ag
Uncle Bucky’s NFL Picks (All 1 unit)
Patriots -22.5 vs Jets at -109 on GTBets.eu
Cowboys -21.5 vs Dolphins at -109 on GTBets.eu
Chargers -3 vs Texas at -119 on GTBets.eu
My NCAAF Picks (all 1/2 units except Wisconsin):
Pitt to beat Central Florida at +380 on GTBets.eu
Illinois to beat Nebraska at +425 on GTBets.eu
Buffalo to beat Temple at +450 on GTBets.eu
Wisconsin to beat Michigan at -155 on BetOnline.ag
Colorado State to beat Toledo at +290 on BetOnline.ag
UTEP to beat Nevada at +490 on GTBets.eu
My NFL Picks (each 1 unit)
Ravens +7 vs Chiefs at -120 on Bovada.lv
Jaguars to beat Titans at +120 on Bovada.lv
Until next time, stay sharp. Oh, and follow those social profiles in my footer!
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