Hilton Sportsbook by Mark Hardie. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.

Weekly Recap & Picks: A Bright Orange Lining to a Losing Week

A gambling flick came out in 2005 called Two for the Money. It stars Al Pacino as a wisened old vet of sports betting touts who takes turns mentoring and manipulating a boy wonder NFL prognosticator played by Matthew McConaughey. It is, by all measures one might normally rely on to assess the artistic merit of a film (Metacritic, Rotten Tomatoes, watching it yourself) , really mediocre. I think I watched it on plane the next year but couldn’t tell you how it ended. The one thing that did stick with me was the kernel of a quote by Pacino’s character about the nature of gambling and the existential responses its aspects engender in different people.

We look like everyone else, but what makes us different is our defect. See, most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win. When we go to gamble, we go to lose. Subconsciously. Me, I never feel better than when they’re raking the chips away; not bringing them in… Because we constantly need to remind ourselves we’re alive. Gambling’s not your problem. It’s this f***ed up need to feel something. To convince yourself you exist. That’s the problem.

It’s an interesting, if not original, insight (there’s a similar take by James Caan’s character in 1974’s The Gambler ). Some people are gambling to win – to feel the euphoria of victory. Others are gambling to lose, even if they don’t realize it, to feel anything. After this weekend, I can tell you I count myself firmly in the first group. I don’t feel any more alive than I did five days ago. Just like more of a loser.

That has as much to do with my betting strategy (dog moneylines) as anything else, as I ended the weekend down just 1 unit. But when you make seven wagers for Saturday and only win one, it can be tough to stay focused on the bigger math. Luckily, I went against my own rule of not picking Tennessee games (I’m a very biased native), as they pulled out my only NCAA victory at +200. Texas Tech came within an OT field goal loss to Baylor to paying out +340 on a 1/2 unit, but none of the others were even close. Luckily, the Steelers +7 was an easy winner on Sunday night (should’ve taken the moneyline!), and brought me back to respectability.

Uncle Bucky had a rough weekend, as well, going 1 for 3 in NCAAF and 2 of 4 in NFL, netting out a loss of 1.29 units. He missed the push on Missouri v. Ole Miss by 1 point, but also picked Dallas -7 and could have easily lost the Seahawks -1.5, so no room for complaints. On the season, I’m now just better than -10% and Uncle Bucky is a little better than -23%…so, if you’re keeping score, we are not beating the juice.

Now, to the picks!

Uncle Bucky’s NCAAF Picks:

  1. Clemson -24 vs Louisville at -109 on GTBets.eu (1 unit)
  2. Arkansas +19 vs Auburn at -109 on GTBets.eu (1 unit)
  3. LSU -18.5 vs Miss. State at -106 on BetOnline.ag (2 units)

Uncle Bucky’s NFL Picks:

  1. Lions +1.5 vs Vikings at -105 on Bovada.lv (1 unit)
  2. 49ers -10 vs Redskins at +106 on GTBets.eu (2 units)
  3. Patriots -9.5 vs Jets at -109 on GTBets.eu (1 unit)

My NCAAF Picks for 1 Unit:

  1. Florida State ML vs Wake Forest at +110 on Bovada.lv
  2. Ole Miss ML vs Texas A&M at +205 on GTBets.eu
  3. Texas Tech ML vs Iowa State at +235 on GTBets.eu
  4. Miami (OH) ML vs N. Illinois at +125 on Bovada.lv

My NCAAF Picks for 1/2 Unit:

  1. Ga. Tech ML vs Miami at +725 on BetOnline.ag
  2. Ga. State ML vs Army at +200 on GTBets.eu
  3. Bowling Green ML vs C. Michigan at +360 on BetOnline.ag
  4. Arizona ML vs USC at +300 on Betnow.eu
  5. Colorado ML vs Washington State +390 on GTBets.eu

My NFL Picks:

  1. Broncos ML vs Chiefs at +150 on MyBookie.ag (2 units)
  2. Ravens ML vs Seahawks at +160 on GTBets.eu (1 unit)
  3. Redskins ML vs 49ers at +351 on Betnow.eu (1 unit)

That’s it for this week. If you’ve been thinking about following BTJ on Twitter (@TheTannerBond) or on the soon-to-launch Instagram profile (beat_the_juice), just go ahead and do it. Carpe Diem the hell outta those follows. And until next time, stay sharp.

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