Weekly Recap & Picks: Saved by a Ramblin’ Wreck of an Upset

I’ve talked about it enough on this blog that I should be used to it by now – a betting strategy that is largely focused on trying to find value in moneyline dogs will have a lot more losses than wins on a per bet basis. So, if that strategy is going to come out ahead in dollars at the end of the day, it has to hit some big upsets along the way. That should be expected. But for me, at least, it hasn’t been. I haven’t calibrated my expectations to the fact that I’m betting quite a few big dogs, so that when one hits, I probably get a lot more excited than I should.

Such was the case this Saturday when my half unit +725 Georgia Tech moneyline bet hit. I won’t lie – I didn’t watch the game because Uverse wasn’t carrying it – The U evidently gave it away, missing THREE rather short FGs and a short sack-fumble for a TD return – but when I saw the final, I ran a mental victory lap around the house and assumed I was set to make up some major ground on the juice this weekend. However, despite hitting Ga. State at +200, Miami of Ohio at +125, and the Ravens at +160, I lost the other 8 and ended up down 0.02 units. To be clear, since the juice is about 5%, that’s still picking better than .500, but not quite well enough to make money. Also to be clear, that Ga. Tech upset stood between me and a bit of a massacre this weekend.

Bucky fared much the same, going 3-3 by cashing in on three huge faves covering (Clemson, LSU and the Pats), but vastly underestimating just how far Arkansas has fallen. And then betting on Matt Patricia and losing Niners -10 by a single point. Ouch. That leaves us pretty much unchanged in terms of units up or down, but improves our % losses vs amounts wagered. I’m at -8.36%, Bucky at -19.75%. As always, you can see all past bets and results at this Google doc.

On to this week’s picks!

Bucky’s NCAAF Picks (each 1 unit):

1. Oklahoma State +10.5 vs Iowa State at -109 on GTBets.eu
2. Auburn +11 vs LSU at -110 on Mybookie.ag
3. Louisville +3.5 vs UVA at -109 on GTBets.eu
4. Notre Dame -1 vs Michigan at -109 on GTBets.eu

Bucky’s NFL Picks (each 1 unit):

1. Colts -5.5 vs Broncos at -109 on GTBets.eu
2. Rams -13 vs Bengals at -109 on GTBets.eu
3. Jaguars -6 vs Jets at -109 on GTBets.eu

My NCAAF Picks for 1 unit:

1. UCLA ML vs Arizona at +160 on GTBets.eu
2. Louisville ML vs UVA at +145 on GTBets.eu

My NCAAF Picks for 1/2 unit:

1. Houston ML vs SMU at +445 on GTBets.eu
2. Colorado ML vs USC at +430 on GTBets.eu
3. Washington St. ML vs Oregon at +475 on BetOnline.ag
4. Kentucky ML vs Missouri at +330 on BetOnline.ag
5. Maryland ML vs Minnesota at +615 on GTBets.eu
6. Wisconsin ML vs Ohio State at +490 on BetOnline.ag
7. Texas State ML vs Ark. State at +385 on BetOnline.ag
8. UNLV ML vs SDSU at +445 on BetOnline.ag

My NFL Picks:

1. Redskins ML vs Vikings at +900 on Mybookie.ag (1/2 unit)
2. Cardinals ML vs Saints at +375 on GTBets.eu (1/2 unit)
3. Browns ML vs Pats at +534 on Betnow.eu (1/2 unit)
4. Chiefs ML vs Packers at +175 on Betnow.eu (1 unit)

That’s all for this week. Until next time, stay sharp.