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Weekly Recap & Picks: Highway to the Chimp Zone

The premise of this website is that Uncle Bucky and I, and I guess every gambler in this degenerate-filled world, are trying to beat the odds that bookmakers build into their lines so that we return more than we wager. Of course, given that the standard odds are -110 (risking $110 to win $100), to beat those odds, or “the juice,” one must first just beat the chimp.

Assuming that betting markets are efficient, a chimpanzee should be able to pick 50% winners in spread bets or otherwise choose bets that only lose about 5% of the wagered amount over time. But that 5% is a big number. It’s a chasm of outcomes. A financial trench separating the chimpanzees and those who are worse than chimpanzees from the true sharps. And “trench” is appropriate here, because as far as I know, that 5% has no name. It’s fallen in a no-primate’s land of gambling nomenclature – stuck between the masses of square bettors and the sharps. There’s not a term for that.

All that ends today, as I’m dubbing that range of outcomes between breakeven and -5% “The Chimp Zone.” This long lead-in is not, of course, unprompted. After going in a deep early hole, and an 11 week fight back, Beat the Juice has not managed to beat the juice. But it has entered “the Chimp Zone.” And I’ve got the graph to prove it.

At the end of Saturday night, I was outside the Chimp Zone, looking in. What had started off as a huge moneyline dog weekend with Tulsa +605 hitting over Central Florida on Thursday quickly reverted to the mean on Friday and Saturday, with my only other NCAAF pickup being Colorado over Stanford. I had lost 12 of my last 15 NCAAF plays, and honestly, was starting to doubt the strategy. Then, for the second weekend in a row, Sunday delivered big time, hitting both Dolphins +420 and Falcons +490, and pushing me to -2.61% on the year.

Bucky had a solid week himself, picking up 1.5 units mostly on the back of a 4-2 Saturday. And he was extremely close to picking up the TCU cover, but then, as we’ve covered before, this blog ain’t about horseshoes or hand grenades – sports gambling is pretty much designed to make you feel as though you are constantly on the wrong side of near-misses that will surely right themselves if you just give them another chance. Bucky is still getting out-picked by the chimps, but closing in on them at -7.02%.

And now for this week’s picks (now in an easier to read table format):

Bucky’s NCAAF Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
FloridaMissouri-7-109GTBets.eu1
WisconsinNebraska-14.5-109GTBets.eu1
Alabama Miss. State-17.5-109GTBets.eu2
Texas TechTCU3-109GTBets.eu1

Bucky’s NFL Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
RavensTexans-4-109GTBets.eu1
SaintsBucs-5.5-109GTBets.eu1
PanthersFalcons-5.5-107BetOnline1

My NCAAF Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
No. IllinoisToledoML125Bovada1
Kent StateBuffaloML200GTBets.eu1
UNC PittML165GTBets.eu1
La. TechMarshallML165GTBets.eu1
West VirginaKansas StateML495BetOnline.ag0.5
Ga. TechVa. TechML190GTBets.eu1
TempleTulaneML195GTBets.eu1
South FloridaCincyML475BetOnline.ag0.5
SyracuseDukeML325BetOnline.ag0.5
NC StateLouisvilleML165GTBets.eu1
UCLAUtahML950Bovada0.5
Oregon StateArizona StateML135Bovada1
Coastal CarolinaArkansas StateML400GTBets.eu0.5
S. CarolinaTexas A&MML375BetOnline.ag0.5
AuburnUGAML125Betnow.eu1
KansasOK StateML650GTBets.eu0.5
Texas TechTCUML145Betnow.eu1
BaylorOklahomaML310Mybookie0.5
HoustonMemphisML325Mybookie0.5
NebraskaWisconsinML500BetOnline0.5

My NFL Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
RedskinsJetsML-115Bovada1
EaglesPatsML175Bovada1
BroncosVikingsML435GTBets.eu1
BengalsRaidersML430GTBets.eu0.5
FalconsPanthersML218Betnow.eu1
BucsSaintsML215Betnow.eu1

Until next time, stay sharper than a chimp!

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