Weekly Recap & Picks: Highway to the Chimp Zone

The premise of this website is that Uncle Bucky and I, and I guess every gambler in this degenerate-filled world, are trying to beat the odds that bookmakers build into their lines so that we return more than we wager. Of course, given that the standard odds are -110 (risking $110 to win $100), to beat those odds, or “the juice,” one must first just beat the chimp.

Assuming that betting markets are efficient, a chimpanzee should be able to pick 50% winners in spread bets or otherwise choose bets that only lose about 5% of the wagered amount over time. But that 5% is a big number. It’s a chasm of outcomes. A financial trench separating the chimpanzees and those who are worse than chimpanzees from the true sharps. And “trench” is appropriate here, because as far as I know, that 5% has no name. It’s fallen in a no-primate’s land of gambling nomenclature – stuck between the masses of square bettors and the sharps. There’s not a term for that.

All that ends today, as I’m dubbing that range of outcomes between breakeven and -5% “The Chimp Zone.” This long lead-in is not, of course, unprompted. After going in a deep early hole, and an 11 week fight back, Beat the Juice has not managed to beat the juice. But it has entered “the Chimp Zone.” And I’ve got the graph to prove it.

At the end of Saturday night, I was outside the Chimp Zone, looking in. What had started off as a huge moneyline dog weekend with Tulsa +605 hitting over Central Florida on Thursday quickly reverted to the mean on Friday and Saturday, with my only other NCAAF pickup being Colorado over Stanford. I had lost 12 of my last 15 NCAAF plays, and honestly, was starting to doubt the strategy. Then, for the second weekend in a row, Sunday delivered big time, hitting both Dolphins +420 and Falcons +490, and pushing me to -2.61% on the year.

Bucky had a solid week himself, picking up 1.5 units mostly on the back of a 4-2 Saturday. And he was extremely close to picking up the TCU cover, but then, as we’ve covered before, this blog ain’t about horseshoes or hand grenades – sports gambling is pretty much designed to make you feel as though you are constantly on the wrong side of near-misses that will surely right themselves if you just give them another chance. Bucky is still getting out-picked by the chimps, but closing in on them at -7.02%.

And now for this week’s picks (now in an easier to read table format):

Bucky’s NCAAF Picks:

Team	Opponent	Bet	Odds	Site	Units Wagered
Florida	Missouri	-7	-109	GTBets.eu	1
Wisconsin	Nebraska	-14.5	-109	GTBets.eu	1
Alabama	Miss. State	-17.5	-109	GTBets.eu	2
Texas Tech	TCU	3	-109	GTBets.eu	1

Bucky’s NFL Picks:

Team	Opponent	Bet	Odds	Site	Units Wagered
Ravens	Texans	-4	-109	GTBets.eu	1
Saints	Bucs	-5.5	-109	GTBets.eu	1
Panthers	Falcons	-5.5	-107	BetOnline	1

My NCAAF Picks:

Team	Opponent	Bet	Odds	Site	Units Wagered
No. Illinois	Toledo	ML	125	Bovada	1
Kent State	Buffalo	ML	200	GTBets.eu	1
UNC	Pitt	ML	165	GTBets.eu	1
La. Tech	Marshall	ML	165	GTBets.eu	1
West Virgina	Kansas State	ML	495	BetOnline.ag	0.5
Ga. Tech	Va. Tech	ML	190	GTBets.eu	1
Temple	Tulane	ML	195	GTBets.eu	1
South Florida	Cincy	ML	475	BetOnline.ag	0.5
Syracuse	Duke	ML	325	BetOnline.ag	0.5
NC State	Louisville	ML	165	GTBets.eu	1
UCLA	Utah	ML	950	Bovada	0.5
Oregon State	Arizona State	ML	135	Bovada	1
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas State	ML	400	GTBets.eu	0.5
S. Carolina	Texas A&M	ML	375	BetOnline.ag	0.5
Auburn	UGA	ML	125	Betnow.eu	1
Kansas	OK State	ML	650	GTBets.eu	0.5
Texas Tech	TCU	ML	145	Betnow.eu	1
Baylor	Oklahoma	ML	310	Mybookie	0.5
Houston	Memphis	ML	325	Mybookie	0.5
Nebraska	Wisconsin	ML	500	BetOnline	0.5

My NFL Picks:

Team	Opponent	Bet	Odds	Site	Units Wagered
Redskins	Jets	ML	-115	Bovada	1
Eagles	Pats	ML	175	Bovada	1
Broncos	Vikings	ML	435	GTBets.eu	1
Bengals	Raiders	ML	430	GTBets.eu	0.5
Falcons	Panthers	ML	218	Betnow.eu	1
Bucs	Saints	ML	215	Betnow.eu	1

Until next time, stay sharper than a chimp!