Weekly Recap & Picks: Trust the Process

It’s weeks like this past one that really test one’s belief in a given betting system. No matter what kind of success you’ve had or how much you believe in the underlying logic of the system you’re using, getting beat over the head with a long string of L’s can shake those beliefs. But when you are mostly betting fairly substantial underdog moneylines, you should expect to have long sequences of losses even if your strategy is +EV. Pinnacle actually just published this great piece diving into the math around exactly how long of a losing streak you should expect to suffer over a given sample size of bets.

As you might’ve guessed, I lost a lot of ground on the juice last week, even leaving the newly minted Chimp Zone for regular ole’ Square Land. To add insult to injury, Bucky not only refused to backslide, but is now, for the first time since Week 1, not only picking better than a chimp but beating the juice. I plan to sit as far away from him as possible on Thursday at my grandmother’s table, at least until my Bills moneyline hits, bringing me back to respectability and making our communications bearable.

That’s all the reminiscing for now. Onto this weeks’ picks.

Bucky’s NCAAF Picks:

Team	Opponent	Bet	Odds	Site	Units Wagered
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-2.5	-105	BetOnline.ag	1
Oklahoma State	Oklahoma	13	-109	GTBets.eu	1
Michigan	Ohio State	9.5	-115	Bovada.lv	1
FSU	Florida	18	-109	GTBets.eu	1

Bucky’s NFL Picks:

Team	Opponent	Bet	Odds	Site	Units Wagered
Cowboys	Bills	-6.5	-108	BetOnline.ag	1
Broncos	Chargers	3	-109	GTBets.eu	1
Jets	Bengals	-3.5	-104	GTBets.eu	1
Colts	Titans	-2.5	-109	GTBets.eu	1
Cardinals	Rams	3	-114	GTBets.eu	1

My NCAAF Picks:

Team	Opponent	Bet	Odds	Site	Units Wagered
Texas Tech	Texas	ML	300	Betnow	0.5
Kent State	E. Michigan	ML	165	Bovada	1
Arkansas	Missouri	ML	400	GTBets	0.5
Cincinnati	Memphis	ML	370	BetOnline	0.5
W. Virgina	TCU	ML	445	GTBets	0.5
Washington State	Washington	ML	255	Bovada	0.5
Syracuse	Wake Forest	ML	165	GTBets	1
Kansas State	Iowa State	ML	180	GTBets	1
NC State	UNC	ML	310	Betnow	0.5
UNLV	Nevada	ML	245	GTBets	0.5
Texas A&M	LSU	ML	640	GTBets	0.5
Oklahoma State	Oklahoma	ML	390	GTBets	0.5
Tulane	SMU	ML	155	Bovada	1
Arizona	Arizona State	ML	445	GTBets	0.5

My NFL Picks:

Team	Opponent	Bet	Odds	Site	Units Wagered
Lions	Bears	ML	190	Bovada	1
Bills	Cowboys	ML	270	Betonline	1
Falcons	Saints	ML	270	Betonline	1
Redskins	Panthers	ML	416	Betnow	0.5
Niners	Ravens	ML	237	Betnow	1
Dolphins	Eagles	ML	384	Betnow	0.5
Raiders	Chiefs	ML	430	Betonline	0.5
Steelers	Browns	ML	125	Bovada	1
Texans	Patriots	ML	160	GTBets	1
Vikings	Seahawks	3	-105	Mybookie	1

That’s all for this week. Enjoy the high holy holiday of family, food and football, not necessarily in that order. And until next time, stay sharp.