Nobody circles the wagons...

Weekly Recap & Picks: The Chimp Line Mafia

In last week’s post, I mentioned that I’d be keeping my distance from Uncle Bucky at the Thanksgiving table until after the Bills brought be above the chimp line and back to respectability. Actually, given that I’d lost the Lions ML early in the day, not even a Bills win at +270 pushed me over -5% on the season, but man, did it get the ball rolling. As a bonus, Bucky had laid the points with the Cowboys. The pumpkin pie tasted especially good as I waited for the Saints/Falcons kickoff.

What followed Friday through Sunday was nothing short of a Beat the Juice victory parade. Kent State, Syracuse, Kansas State, UNLV, West Virginia, the Redskins, Dolphins, Steelers, and Texans – all ML dogs, several of them sizably so – cashed in. I posted an 8.6 unit gain, a 49% ROI on units wagered for the weekend. And for a moment, I was less than 1% from breakeven. On the other side of the ledger, Bucky was going 1-8, losing his short-held +EV status and suddenly flirting with the Chimp Line. Things were looking up for Team BTJ.

Then, just as quickly as the parade had started, it came to a crashing halt. Like a distasteful high school yearbook comment, a drunken Facebook post from 2007, or a Whataburger receipt timestamped at 2:00 AM, my betting past came back to haunt me. All those NCAAF regular season win total futures that I’d worked so long and hard on in August, that I touted so proudly because I was so sure of the value – those futures were presents. And the present was ugly. Over 11 bets wagering 15 units, I went 2-12-1, losing is 7.7 units, all but wiping out the weekend’s hard won gains. I found myself, once again, looking up at the Chimp Line.

And sitting just on the other side of that line, having been riding high only a week earlier, was Uncle Bucky. It’s as if no matter what either of us does to leave the Chimp Line mafia, we find ourselves being pulled back in. Like that -5% line is some type of gambling blackhole. It’s almost enough to make a man doubt that his method is +EV. But not quite.

Enough waxing philosophical. Let’s win some money.

Bucky’s NCAAF Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
Oregon Utah6.5-109GTBets.eu2
OklahomaBaylor-8.5-110mybookie.ag1
MemphisCincinnati-9.5-108BetOnline1
LSUGeorgia-7-109GTBets.eu1

Bucky’s NFL Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
FalconsPanthers-3-109GTBets.eu1
VikingsLions-12.5-109GTBets.eu1
Saints49ers-2.5-105Mybookie.ag1
BuccaneersColts-3-104BetOnline.ag1
TexansBroncos-9-109GTBets.eu1

My NCAAF Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
OregonUtahML210GTBets1
BaylorOklahomaML255Betnow0.5
CincinnatiMemphisML280Betnow0.5
HawaiiBoise StateML425GTBets0.5
GeorgiaLSUML240Bovada1
WisconsinOhio StateML525Betnow0.5

My NFL Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
Bills RavensML225Mybookie1
BroncosTexansML360BetOnline0.5
LionsVikingsML510GTBets0.5
RaidersTitansML131Betnow1
RamsSeahawksML100Bovada1
GiantsEaglesML355BetOnline0.5

That’s all for this week. Until next time, stay sharp. And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter at TheTannerBond to get the picks as soon as they come out – my picks don’t move lines, but the lines do move.

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