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Weekly Recap & Picks: Two Roads Diverged…

The most devoted of Beat The Juice readers may remember that some five weeks ago, Uncle Bucky passed me. There in the picks of mid-November, he went from -7% to -1% on the year, while I dropped about a one percent to -3.65%. And, while there’s been some back and forth since then, I’ve never regained the lead and have generally set my course for the Chimp Line, being within 0.52% of -5% for three straight weeks. Bucky on the other hand flirted with positive ROI for a week and even now is down less than 1%.

He got a huge boost this past week from a four game sweep of NFL spread picks, taking four faves and the Bills (who were somehow dogs against a Steelers team that’s starting an undrafted QB named “Duck” who played his college ball at Samford). Shame on me for not getting on that moneyline. I did get on the Falcons moneyline, which is nice, because I needed it to erase the three other losses on dogs I picked last week, none of which were remotely close. Bucky picked up 3.81 units. I picked up 0.15 units. Our roads continue to diverge, and I don’t like it much at all.

In other news, a little over a month ago, there was a fantastic post by Joseph Buchdahl on Pinnacle. It dives into the math of losing streaks, and particularly, how many losing streaks of a certain length one might expect to have in a given set of bets. For instance, in a set of 1,000 wagers where the odds are assumed to be 50% for each side (a spread bet, for instance), one can expect to suffer a nine-game losing streak an average of about two times! This is both reassuring, allaying my fears that I’ve just had particularly hard luck at a couple of times during my life, and whatever the opposite of re-assuring is…since those streaks are evidently very likely to happen again.

Here’s the piece – https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/losing-runs-in-betting

And here’ the picks.

Bucky’s NCAAF Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
BillsPatriots6.5-109GTBets.eu1
NinersRams-6.5-109GTBets.eu2
FalconsJaguars-7.5101GTBets.eu1
RavensBrowns-10-109GTBets.eu2
SeahawksCardinals-9.5-109GTBets.eu1

Bucky’s NFL Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
Wake ForestMichigan State4-109GTBets1
Notre DameIowa State-3.5-109GTBets2
SMUFAU-3-114GTBets2
Appaplachian StateUAB-16.5-109GTBets1
ClemsonOhio State-2-109GTBets2
LSUOklahoma-13.5-109GTBets1

My NFL Picks:

TeamOpponentBetOddsSiteUnits Wagered
LionsBroncosML263Betnow1
EaglesCowboysML120Betnow1

Until next time, stay sharp.

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