The most devoted of Beat The Juice readers may remember that some five weeks ago, Uncle Bucky passed me. There in the picks of mid-November, he went from -7% to -1% on the year, while I dropped about a one percent to -3.65%. And, while there’s been some back and forth since then, I’ve never regained the lead and have generally set my course for the Chimp Line, being within 0.52% of -5% for three straight weeks. Bucky on the other hand flirted with positive ROI for a week and even now is down less than 1%.
He got a huge boost this past week from a four game sweep of NFL spread picks, taking four faves and the Bills (who were somehow dogs against a Steelers team that’s starting an undrafted QB named “Duck” who played his college ball at Samford). Shame on me for not getting on that moneyline. I did get on the Falcons moneyline, which is nice, because I needed it to erase the three other losses on dogs I picked last week, none of which were remotely close. Bucky picked up 3.81 units. I picked up 0.15 units. Our roads continue to diverge, and I don’t like it much at all.
In other news, a little over a month ago, there was a fantastic post by Joseph Buchdahl on Pinnacle. It dives into the math of losing streaks, and particularly, how many losing streaks of a certain length one might expect to have in a given set of bets. For instance, in a set of 1,000 wagers where the odds are assumed to be 50% for each side (a spread bet, for instance), one can expect to suffer a nine-game losing streak an average of about two times! This is both reassuring, allaying my fears that I’ve just had particularly hard luck at a couple of times during my life, and whatever the opposite of re-assuring is…since those streaks are evidently very likely to happen again.
Here’s the piece – https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/losing-runs-in-betting
And here’ the picks.
Bucky’s NCAAF Picks:
| Team | Opponent | Bet | Odds | Site | Units Wagered |
| Bills | Patriots | 6.5 | -109 | GTBets.eu | 1 |
| Niners | Rams | -6.5 | -109 | GTBets.eu | 2 |
| Falcons | Jaguars | -7.5 | 101 | GTBets.eu | 1 |
| Ravens | Browns | -10 | -109 | GTBets.eu | 2 |
| Seahawks | Cardinals | -9.5 | -109 | GTBets.eu | 1 |
Bucky’s NFL Picks:
| Team | Opponent | Bet | Odds | Site | Units Wagered |
| Wake Forest | Michigan State | 4 | -109 | GTBets | 1 |
| Notre Dame | Iowa State | -3.5 | -109 | GTBets | 2 |
| SMU | FAU | -3 | -114 | GTBets | 2 |
| Appaplachian State | UAB | -16.5 | -109 | GTBets | 1 |
| Clemson | Ohio State | -2 | -109 | GTBets | 2 |
| LSU | Oklahoma | -13.5 | -109 | GTBets | 1 |
My NFL Picks:
| Team | Opponent | Bet | Odds | Site | Units Wagered |
| Lions | Broncos | ML | 263 | Betnow | 1 |
| Eagles | Cowboys | ML | 120 | Betnow | 1 |
Until next time, stay sharp.