The thing about sports gambling is that the math has a way of re-asserting itself. Of bringing balance to the Gambling Force, so to speak. OK, forgive the strained Star Wars metaphors; I’ve come by them honestly with my house becoming an homage to all merchandise from a galaxy far, far away this holiday season. And I needed a tie-in for this photo of mini-Darth. And, well, the metaphor kind of holds up.
Just as we left last week thinking Bucky was making a run for +EV territory, vanquishing both the books and me in a piece of late season handicapping wizardry, the gambling gods came for their due. Bucky bet big last week, putting 2 units on three different contests. And while the Ravens held up their end of the bargain (don’t they always this year?), the Niners found a way to not cover -6.5. And SMU found a way to get blown out by the third quarter against perennial powerhouse Florida Atlantic. All in all, Bucky lost just over 4 units on the week, taking him from -0.9% to -3.79% on the season. It wasn’t quite an exploding Death Star, but certainly a big moment for the good guys of this blog (ahem…).
Speaking of, I looked poised to make a comeback on Bucky and the Chimp Line early in the week, with Kent State +225 and FAU +150 both hitting. But things fizzled out in the bowl schedule the rest of the weekend. In fact, I would’ve been losing significant ground if it weren’t for an all-time Clapper performance by the Cowboys, delivering an Eagles +120 payday, and leaving me at a virtual push for the week. This leaves me just above the Chimp Line at -4.85% on the year. Now, we turn to a bigger batch of bowl games and NFL Week 17, always the quirkiest week of NFL handicapping, given the teams’ strange incentives (or lack thereof) and resulting line-ups.
It’s a fairly rare week that you have multiple NFL games with double digit spreads. This week has four, and I wouldn’t put it past that Chiefs line to get to 10 before kickoff. Bucky has made up his mind to ride the faves to glory or doom. As usual, I take a different tack.
As a reminder, both Bucky and I picked bowl games scheduled for this week in previous posts. He’s picking some new lines now. You can find all the picks in this google doc.
Bucky’s NCAAF Picks:
| Team | Opponent | Bet | Odds | Site | Units Wagered |
| Utah | Texas | -7 | -109 | GTBets | 1 |
| Alabama | Michigan | -7 | -109 | GTBets | 1 |
| Georgia | Baylor | -5.5 | -109 | GTBets | 1 |
| California | Illinois | -6.5 | -106 | BetOnline | 1 |
| Auburn | Minnesota | -7 | -105 | BetOnline | 1 |
| Tennessee | Indiana | -1.5 | -109 | GTBets | 1 |
Bucky’s NFL Picks:
| Team | Opponent | Bet | Odds | Site | Units Wagered |
| Bears | Vikings | -3 | -104 | GTBets | 1 |
| Chiefs | Chargers | -9 | -104 | GTBets | 1 |
| Saints | Panthers | -13 | -109 | GTBets | 1 |
My NFL Picks:
| Team | Opponent | Bet | Odds | Site | Units Wagered |
| Redskins | Cowboys | ML | 435 | GTBets | 0.5 |
| Dolphins | Patriots | ML | 725 | Mybookie | 0.5 |
| Lions | Packers | ML | 506 | Betnow | 0.5 |
| Chargers | Chiefs | 9 | -105 | Mybookie | 1 |
| Seahawks | 49ers | ML | 170 | GTBets | 1 |
That’s all for this week. Have a great New Year’s Bowl Season, and until next time, stay sharp.