I’ll start this week with a nod to hitting the Titans moneyline (+200!) on what may be the end of the greatest American pro sports dynasty we’ve ever seen. It’s a strange finish. I’ve become so accustomed to seeing the Pats in the AFC championship game these past 20 years, not to speak of the divisional round, that the playoffs now feel almost chaotic. It’s as if the sun at the center of the NFL universe had just disappeared, vanishing with its gravitational pull, and leaving all the other orbiting teams to fly any which way they freakin’ want instead of their destined course (usually one with long fairways).
And I’m here for it. The NFL has been very good to BTJ this season. Last week was no exception, with both Titans and Vikings moneylines hitting as sizable dogs, and the Eagles losing as a small one, leaving me up 2.75 units on NFL for the week and up 19% on the year. For several years, I’ve been wary betting against the Pats, even when I felt like the numbers told me to. So while I appreciate the bump from the Titans win, I’m happy to see them exit the stage.
Unfortunately, the BTJ strategy has been far less fruitful in NCAAF, netting a 15% loss on the year. I’m eager to get back to the drawing board to see what can be tweaked to turn the worst of times into the best of times on that side of the board, but I don’t see enough value in any plays in the Championship game to provide a pick.
Bucky has no such reservations. Come off a two week stretch where he picked up 2.37 units and has landed in the black for the first time in six weeks, he’s picking every game on the board this weekend. I think traditional gambling logic (not something we adhere to here at BTJ) would say it’s time to tail him – he’s been a remarkably similar +EV in both NCAAF and NFL so far this year, just north of breakeven and shy of 1%.
Onto the picks!
|Ravens||Titans||7 point teased to -2.5||-130||GTBets||1.3|
|Chiefs||Texans||7 point teased to -2.5||Second leg||GTBets||Second leg|
That’s it for this week. Until next time, stay sharp.